Where these estimates come from
2025 references were recorded on 2026-08-02 from unverified search-result extracts. No 2026 carrier deadline has been verified in this edition.
Projected, not guaranteed
Planning estimate only, not a delivery guarantee. Confirm route, acceptance time and service availability with the carrier.
For each service, the model counts shipping days between its stored 2025 reference send-by date and its recorded arrival target. It counts the same number back from the 2026 target. USPS targets December 25; the FedEx and UPS references target December 24. Sundays are excluded. Saturdays, peak capacity, local pickup times and each origin/destination pair are not fully modeled, so the estimate may be wrong in either direction.
Evidence and gaps
These historical references were collected from search-result extracts, not verified by opening the carrier pages. Known conflicting FedEx 2Day and UPS 2nd Day Air references are withheld. UPS Ground has no national date in the source data. DHL is unsupported. Amazon promises vary by item, address and checkout.
Non-2026 dates are unsupported. Minor-holiday projections are withheld until their holiday-specific transit arithmetic is validated. This edition supports Christmas 2026 estimates only. A known FedEx closure inside a projected transit window withholds the estimate.
Publication and calendars
There is no live feed, automatic verification or promised update interval. A Published recommendation requires primary-source verification recorded for that exact service and season. Calendar files are tentative all-day planning reminders based on the displayed model date, not appointments or delivery guarantees.